Don’t Trust Presidential Polls

camacho

If you type the words “Clinton Trump Poll” into any search engine you’ll get a very confusing set of links. Some have Clinton up by +6 and others have Trump with a landslide. You’ll find statisticians with perfect prediction records ready to put money on either to win.

There are dozens of methodologies employed to calculate the raw data, and an enormous amount of partisanship employed to decipher it. Do you add in the third parties? How were the questions asked? How do these numbers affect public perception? Is the media juking the stats? Is voting even real?

The BREXIT vote should be giving a lot of Clinton supporters heart palpitations. It wasn’t set to pass on most of the mainstream polls. It won. So what’s going on there and what does it say about Trump?

Here’s my theory: there really isn’t much social backlash for supporting Hillary. I guess if you had an “I’m with Her” sticker on your car deep in a poor neighborhood in a red state, you might catch some heat, but most likely not.  Even if you aren’t into Hillary Clinton, you can still vocalize support for her without too much social grief. If you say you’re voting for Trump, it’s a whole different story.

I don’t know any secret Hillary voters, but I do know a few people down-low for Trump.

I think a lot of people who would vote Trump are unwilling to answer that way on polls because of social disapproval. So when I see Clinton up anything less than 10 points, I start to wonder, how big is the Trump iceberg? Is it enough to sink what should be an unsinkable candidate?

 

 

 

 

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