I’m rooting for Diaz 100%. I think his natural size advantage, boxing skill, and superior Brazilian Jiu-jitsu will be enough to overwhelm McGregor once the fight gets into deeper rounds.
That said, McGregor has everything to prove and he will be bringing it. He is said to have spent close to $300k on this camp. While a lot of that was probably eaten up by Louis Vuitton underwear and Touch Butt sessions with that dork in the park, at least some of it went to bringing in some high level BJJ players and boxing guys.
Expect a major change in McGregor’s game plan. Probably a very good change. I think you’ll see him using leg kicks to neutralize Diaz’s reach. I imagine he’s lost confidence in his heavy left hand after it failed to put Diaz away last time.
McGregor is supposed to be rocking some sort of ketogenic of diet. It’s all the rage for getting lean, but I haven’t heard much about it being good for cardio, which is what he is going to need to break Diaz.
The longer this fight goes, the more it will likely go Diaz’s way. His cardio is superior and he really gets going around the third round.
If the fight goes the distance, then expect a decision in McGregor’s favor. If this was boxing, they would’ve probably poisoned Diaz. The UFC doesn’t have the same judging problems the Olympics do, but it isn’t great and I can’t imagine the new owners would be too pleased if Diaz wins.
If I had money on this fight, I’d put it down for a Diaz win by submission in the third.